Thursday, September 5, 2013

Whether there is demand means not bubble?

If Hong Kong property market bubble has certain, said the Beijing property market bubble is facing controversy.Zhang Dawei thinks, as well as Hong Kong, there is a bubble, Beijing property market "mainly is the house price to income ratio gap is too big". From the housing price to Low pressure fluid conveying with welded steel pipe income ratio, rental housing prices than the two whether property prices reasonable measure, at present Beijing these two indicators were significantly more than the international practice.

"Beijing is one of the most severe for Seamless tube used in steam pipe purchasing cities, house prices are still rising, and that there is a lot of self living and improve the housing demand." Shanghai e-house real estate research institute researcher Su Yan believes that Beijing's housing market is demand oriented, there just needs to support, and inventory at historical lows, there is no bubble.

Wang Deyong securities analyst said that the schedule 40 galvanized steel pipe biggest difference lies in Beijing and Hong Kong, Beijing can be very severe population expansion since 2008, the housing demand, and more and more affordable home; Hong Kong property market lack the support of the local population "for nearly 20 years of slow population short radius 90 degree elbow growth, local demand is limited". Is more speculative demand, continental Europe and the United States investors have entered even pushing up prices. He pointed out that this kind of situation in Hong Kong is very risky, once expected flipped, house prices fell sharply become inevitable.

Zhang Dawei believes that demand and the bubble is not necessarily linked. More often panic demand that buy a house, not the current demand, but the demand in advance overdraft. "Although the restrictions allow some speculators away, but some people will not rule out a house used as a means of investment, there are still risks." He said, "the location advantage of Beijing is too attractive, people keep buying, play the game of musical chairs. The more the greater the risk."

Fan Xiaochong to our reporter said that housing demand, market bubbles reduced or disappeared this logic, applies only in a real market economy conditions. "Political and economic environment facing the real estate industry is relatively deformed", he points out that the unreasonable land, tax policy, pushing up prices; Civil servants, through special channels state worker can get welfare house; Beijing's restrictions limit the needs of foreigners to buy a house, hindered the natural flow of residential, contrary to general economic law. In this environment theory of supply and demand and bubbles, it won't work.

Director of the 21st century real estate market SangYu maple think, as a lot of mature market economy theory and the law can not explain the phenomenon, China's bubble theory cannot explain exactly Beijing and other cities housing prices, why is it so high, but also has been under the strict control policy. Just like people call for the deep economic reform, the existing real estate regulation and control way of thinking must be changed, to respect the economic law, on the basis of reconstruction of the whole system of real estate, otherwise will always be a elephant.

No comments:

Post a Comment